Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 11.772269 14.460751 17.462591 21.039785 25.162652 29.741578 35.186792
2025-11-30 8.138730 11.623459 15.956813 21.638754 28.782739 37.355124 48.297330
2025-12-07 5.785678 9.395730 14.302230 21.236437 30.541753 42.346103 58.172449
2025-12-14 4.448097 8.090973 13.434352 21.466254 32.816320 47.843990 68.747995
2025-12-21 3.208023 6.578360 11.924986 20.467218 33.151345 50.629774 75.775342
2025-12-28 2.620925 5.949296 11.582155 21.030133 35.608327 56.314410 86.859732
2026-01-04 2.114166 5.320514 11.105752 21.273226 37.536738 61.289444 97.134881
2026-01-11 1.741761 4.842346 10.784469 21.683436 39.687744 66.635526 108.113375
2026-01-18 1.468876 4.491194 10.618222 22.300683 42.160467 72.531213 120.084220
2026-01-25 1.141986 3.916683 9.926161 21.904426 42.932433 75.862709 128.396342
2026-02-01 0.939330 3.574749 9.624825 22.151547 44.744766 80.829447 139.284355
2026-02-08 0.726626 3.126539 9.016523 21.740894 45.380284 83.947671 147.457583
2026-02-15 0.525783 2.637848 8.256601 21.013627 45.531383 86.503709 155.220412
2026-02-22 0.435474 2.461557 8.187468 21.667153 48.209117 93.320775 169.952251
2026-03-01 0.319594 2.125068 7.648851 21.267770 48.910320 96.885939 179.668407
2026-03-08 0.251011 1.928814 7.422572 21.498058 50.783656 102.474860 192.790475
2026-03-15 0.166078 1.583193 6.693364 20.497876 50.196468 103.807333 199.035570
2026-03-22 0.134777 1.482321 6.647372 21.061447 52.703272 110.591538 214.425117
2026-03-29 0.103955 1.352424 6.478343 21.304821 54.572153 116.316059 228.224602
2026-04-05 0.081796 1.253639 6.383862 21.715504 56.799852 122.755721 243.404925
2026-04-12 0.066230 1.184629 6.373094 22.333458 59.489620 130.119901 260.349481
2026-04-19 0.044775 1.025305 5.991801 21.936747 59.998626 133.519609 270.632389
2026-04-26 0.033354 0.939674 5.859760 22.184152 61.898612 139.540165 285.573012